Abstract
Background: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used to estimate economic damages of climate change. These estimates, called the social cost of carbon (SCC), are used extensively by policymakers to assess regulatory benefits. Here we evaluate the health based damage functions in IAMs in order to identify potential areas in which environmental epidemiologists can improve estimates of the SCC. Methods: Of the three models currently used by the US EPA to estimate the SCC, the FUND model was selected for this analysis due to its explicit modeling of health impacts and region-specific analysis. A sensitivity analysis for each health endpoint in FUND was completed in order to determine their relative impact on estimates of the SCC. Comparison of these health outcomes to the US Global Change Research Program 2014 prospectus was completed to assess whether additional health endpoints should be added to the FUND model. Results: The FUND model includes many of the health endpoints that have been identified as being responsive to changes in climate. Per unit changes in temperature are modeled to increase health risks proportionally regardless of baseline temperature or social factors that may modify these associations; this is especially apparent in estimates of infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue, but is also pertinent for estimates of cardiovascular and respiratory mortality. Overall, the contribution of health related impacts on estimates of SCC is small relative to other economic impacts. Conclusions: Region specific health functions that take into account baseline climate and social conditions are needed. Providing accurate inputs to IAMs broadens the impact of climate related environmental epidemiology research. Increased communication between epidemiologists and economists will improve estimates of the SCC by incorporating the best available health functions and by informing health scientists of areas needing further research.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
