Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement targets

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study performed scenario analysis using the MARKAL modelling framework to assess Thailand’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways over the period 2010–2050, to explore the possibilities of achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100, in pursuit of a maximum temperature rise of 2°C and 1.5°C by the end of the century. The shift from 2°C pathways to 1.5°C pathways would demand much more effort and pose greater challenges in terms of transformational changes required in the energy supply and demand sectors of Thailand. Carbon neutrality in the energy supply system would be achievable with negative emissions through the adoption of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The strong deployment of renewable energy-based power generation would also aid in the rapid decarbonization of the energy supply sector. The demand sectors would face more challenges requiring rapid and extensive deployment of energy efficient and low carbon technologies. The commercial sector may need to undergo deep decarbonization in the 1.5°C scenarios by 2050 while the industrial and residential sectors will need to curb GHG emissions by a large amount even under 2°C scenarios. The transportation sector would face challenges in shifting from private to public modes of transport, including wide adoption of electric and biofuel vehicles, in order to achieve the 1.5°C target. Key Policy insights The attainment of 2°C and 1.5°C targets demand for a wide scale adoption of BECCS in Thailand resulting in negative emissions in the power sector even before 2050. Biomass, solar photovoltaics, and wind power would make up to the largest portion in the total power generation mix of Thailand in the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2050. Achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100 is a challenging task for Thailand requiring higher investments and supportive policy actions to promote renewables, carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy efficiency enhancements.