Assessment of global drought propensity and its impacts on agricultural water use in future climate scenarios

Abstract

Drought is the most widespread and most influential natural disaster in the world, especially a threat to agricultural production. In future climate scenarios, the meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature in each region will change, which will affect the distribution and characteristics of global drought in the future. In this paper, the global drought propensity was evaluated by reformulated Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-PM) based on Penman-Monteith equation in three future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of 9 General Circulation Models (GCMs). Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis were used to assess the spatial-temporal distribution and evolution characteristics of the future global drought. Taking reference evapotranspiration (ET0) of crops as the index, potential effects of global drought on agricultural water use were assessed. The results showed that under the influence of the changes of future temperature, precipitation and other meteorological factors, the global drought has presented regional difference characteristics. In three climate scenarios, the trend of severe drought was detected in Africa, North America, South America and Oceania in three climate scenarios. Spatial distribution of SPEI is consistent and intensified drought was detected in southern, northern and northeast of Africa in three decades in all scenarios. EOF analysis showed that there were more positive time coefficients in RCP8.5 scenario than other scenarios, then parts of South America and Africa would face intensified drought in all climate scenarios. The evolution of future global drought would pose a threat on global water use for agricultural production. The annual average ET0 of three decades in major grain producing countries would be on the rise compared to the baseline (1976–2005), among which RCP8.5 scenario was most obvious. Large increase rate of ET0 would occur in Ukraine, Turkey, Russia and Canada in the 2080s in three scenarios. In the future, major grain producing countries would face serious threats of drought, which would pose a great challenge to regional agricultural water use. The study will provide forward-looking information to alleviate the adverse effects of drought on agricultural water use.