Assessment of geomorphic hazards in connection with permafrost occurrence in the Zugspitze area (Bavarian Alps, Germany)

Abstract

In the Zugspitze area (Bavarian Alps, Germany), permafrost conditions are present in limestone bedrock and in regolith. Distribution is strongly dependent on topography in the east–west oriented mountain crest with steep north- and south-facing slopes. Numerous structures mainly for tourist purposes (cable car and recreation buildings, ski-lift masts, rack-railway tunnel, tunnel with supply facilities) are situated in the area, and several of them are placed on ground with permafrost. Results from a temperature measurement programme and distribution modelling show that for some of these constructions, the effects of permafrost degradation have to be considered in terms of stability of the foundations. The permafrost limit is close to the summit crest, and therefore, stability evaluations for the constructions in this area have to bear in mind the possible warming or even melting of ice within the bedrock crevasses caused by climate warming. Stability of the foundations as well as stability of rock walls in this area will probably be affected by a shifting of the permafrost limit. Constructions in the Zugspitzplatt area are already affected by the melting ground ice, and stabilizing measures have to be evaluated for several foundations where subsidence is likely to occur. Besides the local results, the study provides for the first time data on permafrost distribution in the northern Alpine margin based on standard methods of BTS measurements and numerical modelling.