Assessment of future wind resources under climate change using a multi-model and multi-method ensemble approach

Abstract

Harvesting renewable wind energy is among the most cost-efficient means of reducing carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. However, wind resource is susceptible to climate change impacts since the global temperature increase will reshape atmospheric circulation patterns. To facilitate the evaluation of fine-scale wind energy potential under climate variability, this paper proposes and validates a multi-model and multi-method ensemble wind resource projection approach. Then this approach is utilized to investigate the future variation of wind resources in Hong Kong based on the combined use of global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and long-term observations from meteorological stations. It is found that there is a significant increase in future wind resources during summer, while a remarkable decline is projected during autumn. Nevertheless, the variations of wind resources in winter and spring are relatively insignificant. The outcomes of this study are expected to offer a framework for fine-scale wind resource assessment under climate change, and facilitate the economic and risk assessments of future wind farm projects.