Abstract
AbstractClimate change is likely to cause higher temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns, with potential impacts on water resources. One important issue in this respect is inflow to drinking water reservoirs. Moreover, deteriorating infrastructures cause leakage in water distribution systems and urbanization augments water demand in cities. In this paper, a framework for assessing the combined impacts of multiple trends on water availability is proposed. The approach is focused on treating uncertainty in local climate projections in order to be of practical use to water suppliers and decision makers. An index for water availability (WAI) is introduced to quantify impacts of climate change, population growth, and ageing infrastructure, as well as the effects of implementing counteractive measures, and has been applied to the city of Bergen, Norway. Results of the study emphasize the importance of considering a range of climate scenarios due to the wide spread in global projections. For the specific case of Bergen, substantial alterations in the hydrological cycle were projected, leading to stronger seasonal variations and a more unpredictable water availability. By sensitivity analysis of the WAI, it was demonstrated how two adaptive measures, increased storage capacity and leakage reduction, can help counteract the impacts of climate change.
Highlights
A safe and steady drinking water supply is one of the most important public goods there is
Mehran et al ( ) investigated the bias between Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) continental precipitation simulations and satellitebased gauge-adjusted observations, and found that, in general, monthly precipitation is well captured by most Global climate models (GCMs)
The downscaled GCMs capture the seasonal variations over the year, characterized by high precipitation amounts in the colder months and lower precipitation during spring and summer, which is considered adequate for the purpose of assessing long-term water availability
Summary
A safe and steady drinking water supply is one of the most important public goods there is. As awareness of climate change increases, there is rising concern for the future reliability of drinking water supplies. More and more people live in cities, yielding more strain on existing water supply systems as the water demand. Responsible water suppliers need to assess both the potential negative effects of climate change to supply and the trends towards increased water demand if they wish to secure reliable water supply services in the future
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