Assessment of future options for land use in the European Community

Abstract

In the case of agricultural production, technical limitations can be used to explore future options for land use. As opposed to common economic outlooks this type of exploration provides information on the caveats and possibilities for agriculture. The options are calculated by combining a land evaluation (using a Geographical Information System, GIS), crop growth simulation models and Interactive Multiple Goal Linear Programming (IMGP). In the land evaluation, geographical information on soil types and other characteristics like steepness, stoniness, phase etc. is used to assess the suitability for different types of agriculture. Information on climate conditions and crop properties is used in the crop growth simulation models to calculate yield potentials for the suited areas. Economic, social and political goals are dealt with in a linear programming model. The result of this hierarchical modelling is a series of scenarios of optimal land use given the local properties of soils, crops and climate and given the economic, social and political considerations on topics like production costs, spreading of labor, market strategies and environmental conditions. Four different scenarios for future land use in the European Community emerge if the ongoing rise in productivity in agriculture is confronted with four partially conflicting goals of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The scenarios present a picture of the end results in land use if one of these goals is taken to its logical conclusion. The goals are minimizing production costs (scenario Free market and free trade), maintaining regional employment (scenario Regional development), minimizing agricultural land use in favor of nature conservation (scenario Nature and landscape) and minimizing the stress on the environment due to pesticides and nutrients (scenario Environmental protection). All scenarios show results that are in sharp contrast with current opinions on the most probable developments in rural areas. In this paper the methodology will be exemplified and the results for possible land use in the EC will be discussed. Special attention is given to the interpretation of the results of this type of exploration.