Abstract
Maintaining sustainability in rainfed wheat production under changing climate is a grave concern for food security in Algeria. This study aims to assess the impact of future climate change on rainfed wheat yield in the semiarid Eastern High Plains (Setif and Bordj Bou Arreridj (BBA)) in Algeria using AquaCrop model. For this purpose, the EURO-CORDEX climate projections by 2035â2064 and 2065â2094 were downscaled using ICHEC_KNMI model under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The crop model predicted wheat yield increase by 82â95% and 77â118% at Setif and by 8â16% and 133â135% at BBA under the RCP 4.5 (2035â64 and 2065â94) and RCP 8.5 (2035â64 and 2065â94) scenarios, respectively, compared to the yield of the baseline period of 1981â2010. Future yield improvement is due to the fertilizing effect of the elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere, which offsets the negative impacts of rising temperature, decreasing precipitations and the net solar radiation. The expected increase in yield is much higher under RCP 8.5 compared to RCP 4.5 because CO2 concentration is higher under RCP 8.5. The model predicted an increase in wheat water productivity because of the expected decrease in evapotranspiration losses. To adapt rainfed wheat to future climate change in the study area, early sowing in mid-October provides better yields because it allows the wheat crop to take more benefits from increased precipitation during the vegetative development stage and to avoid the spring warming temperature.
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