Assessment of Future Climate and Kharif Paddy Yields using Ceres-Rice in the State of Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

Climate change considerably impacts water needs for agricultural production, particularly in paddy crops (Oryza Sativa). The paddy crop response is uncertain and also heterogeneous due to climate change. Climate variables rainfall and temperature directly impact crop productivity. A precise understanding of crop yields is required for agricultural production management to plan sustainable food demand in the future at the state level. The climate change scenario's impact on rice yield at 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution was assessed in Andhra Pradesh and presented in this paper. The use of representative concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario in projections made by the Global Climate Model (GCM) were downscaled for mid-century (2048-2078) using statistical tools. In this study, the Cropping System Model (CSM) and Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) modules for rice, as part of the Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) package, were utilized. The use of the Regional Crop Yield Estimation System (RCYES) for the Cropping System Model (CSM) within the Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) was facilitated through Python in this study. It is observed that rainfall will decrease during winter and pre-monsoon seasons related to the baseline period (1988–2018) for RCP 8.5. From July to October, there was a significant increase in rainfall. The most considerable change in the rain was 50.7 mm in September. A notable variation between the maximum and minimum temperatures of 2.3 and 2.5 degrees Celsius in June and April respectively. Rainfall is expected to increase in Anantapur, Kurnool and Nellore districts during the mid-century 2040's. The correlation between the baseline and DES mean yield was 0.87, with a maximum yield of 0.86 and a minimum yield of 0.82. Decrease paddy yields by up to 10.7% in West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur, Nellore and Prakasam districts. At the same time, an increase in paddy yields up to 9.8% is anticipated in Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, East Godavari, Anantapur, Chittoor, Kadapa, and Kurnool. In contrast, a maximum decrease of 189.9 mm of rainfall is expected in the Vizianagaram district. These results could assist in devising adaptation measures to reduce the negative effect of climate change on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh.