Assessment of forecast parameters of the volume of investment in the fixed capital in the region

Abstract

The authors study the problems of the quality of government agencies’ forecasts for social and economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. They point out that the volumes of investment in the fixed capital is one of the most important indicators by which it is possible to judge about the current state of economics as well as about the prospects for its development. On the one hand, the study is considered to be of extreme topicality due to the risks of development of negative process in investment activity in the country which are caused by global factors. On the other hand, it is necessary to point out that the role of forecasting as the element of regional development management is growing under the present conditions. The purpose of the study is to assess the quality of forecast for the volumes of investment in fixed capital and the indicators connected with it at the regional level. The approach suggested has been tested while analyzing the data on the Republic of Bashkortostan. To achieve the objective, the authors made statistical analysis for revealing contradictions in the indicators’ dynamics; examined the pace of growth of investment in current and comparable prices; made comparison with the region’s GRP dynamics, enterprises’ profit, parameters of development of construction industry; calculated the return of capital. They employed structural analysis method, dynamics’ analysis. Moreover, the authors estimated the conformity of the forecast with the strategic planning of regional and federal levels. They disclosed contradictions which decrease the quality of the forecast and dispute the effect of the measures taken in accordance with it. The scientific novelty of the approach suggested lies in implementation of complex view on assessment of quality of such documents by means of analyzing the conformity of dynamics for interrelated indicators. The results of the research can be used to discover the drawbacks in the existing forecast system. These drawbacks ought to be eliminated to raise the efficiency of the entire state management system.