Abstract
Assessing vulnerability and potential impacts associated with extreme discharges requires an accurate topographic description in order to estimate the extension of flooded areas. However, in most populated regions, topographic data obtained by in-situ measurements is not available. In this case, digital elevation models derived from remote sensing date are usually applied. Moreover, this digital elevation models have intrinsic errors that introduce bigger uncertainty in results than the associated to hydrological projections. On the other hand, estimations of flooded areas through remote sensing images provide accurate information, which could be used for the construction of river level-flooded area relationships regarding vulnerability assessment. In this work, this approach is applied for the city of Porto Velho in the Brazilian Amazonia to assess potential vulnerability to floods associated with climate change projections. The approach is validated using census data, provided by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and information about socio-economical injuries associated to historical floods, provided by the Brazilian Civil Defence. Hydrological projections under climate change are carried out using several downscaling of climate projections as inputs in a hydrological model. Results show more accurate estimation of flood impacts than the obtained using digital elevation models derivate from remote sensing data. This reduces uncertainties in the assessment of vulnerability to floods associated with climate change in the region.
Highlights
With a mean discharge of 31704 m3 s-1 and a drainage area of 1420000 km2, the Madeira River is one of the most important tributary of the Amazon River
Estimations of flooded areas through remote sensing images provide accurate information, which could be used for the construction of river level-flooded area relationships regarding vulnerability assessment
Hydrological projections were obtained with the MHD-INPE hydrological model (Rodriguez and Tomasella 2015) applied to the Madeira Basin (Siqueira Junior et al 2015)
Summary
With a mean discharge of 31704 m3 s-1 and a drainage area of 1420000 km, the Madeira River is one of the most important tributary of the Amazon River. The city of Porto Velho, capital of Rondônia State, located in the Madeira main-stem is frequently affected by floods. These events completely disrupt the livelihood of local population. Climate projection indicates that such extreme events might become more frequent in the future In this context, mitigation and adaptation become crucial for reducing the risk of disasters associated to climate-change. Assessing vulnerability and potential impacts associated with extreme discharges requires an accurate topographic description in order to estimate the extension of flooded areas. In most populated regions, topographic data obtained by in-situ measurements is not available In this case, digital elevation models derived from remote sensing date are usually applied. Estimations of flooded areas through remote sensing images provide accurate information, which could be used for the construction of river level-flooded area relationships regarding vulnerability assessment
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