Assessment of fire weather index calculations in Europe

Abstract

Wildfires caused by extreme weather conditions e.g high temperatures and drought have been increasing both in frequency and magnitude in the recent years. Due to the changing climate also regions with few recorded forest fires in the past are likely to be more frequently affected by wildfires. These wildfires have many social, economic, and environmental impacts. The EU funded SAFERS project, Structured Approaches for Forest Fire Emergencies in Resilient Societies, is creating an open and integrated platform featuring a forest fire decision support system in order to support societies becoming more resilient when acting against forests fires. The platform will, among other information, provide weather forecasts and forest fire indices to assess the risk of forest fires. Using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) system [Van Wagner, 1974], fuel moisture (FFMC, DMC, DC) and fire behaviour indices (ISI, BUI, FWI) can be calculated using solely meteorological parameters (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and 24-hour precipitation). The Canadian FWI has been proved useful for forest fire risk assessment in different regions and has been adapted by multiple meteorological agencies worldwide. In our study, we use high resolution deterministic weather forecasts, as well as medium-range and extended-range weather forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to calculate the FWI indices for up to 3, 15 and 46 days ahead, respectively. In our contribution we will present preliminary results of FWI verification and calibration methods.