Abstract
Research background: The aim of the scientific contribution is to analyze the aspect of Transport Development of the Greater Tumen Initiative. Economic cooperation among the countries of the Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) is the basis for interaction in various fields, especially transport. Purpose of the article: However, taking into account the prevailing trends in Europe-Asia transportation, it is not entirely correct to make the implementation of GTI transport projects dependent on prospective transit freight flows. At first, it is necessary to concentrate on the transport support of foreign trade flows directly between the GTI member countries. Methods: We propose to assess the stability of foreign trade flows as a cargo base (current and potential) of transport projects within the GTI by absolute time series, which reflects the trend (or its absence, i.e. each next level is higher or lower than the previous one) and its stability, as well as by relative time series, i.e. growth rates, which reflects the stability of the change rate (the growth rate of each subsequent period is higher or lower than the previous one). Findings & Value added: Based on the results of the assessment of foreign trade flows between the member countries, that forms the current and potential cargo base of transport projects, it was concluded not only about a high degree of stability and potential of foreign economic cooperation, but also about the need of extra measures for its further intensifying, including foreign trade transport services improvement.
Highlights
The Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) is an intergovernmental system of cooperation between four countries – China, Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and the Russian Federation in Northeast Asia
The economic development of the Republic of Korea as another member of the GTI is studied, for example, from the standpoint of the comparative advantages manifested in international trade, which is discussed in the study by Sim and Yoo (2018), shocks of foreign and domestic economic policy, the impact of which is studied by Cheng (2017), integration processes that are studied by Lim and Breuer (2019)
We propose to assess the stability of foreign trade flows as a cargo base of transport projects within the GTI by absolute time series, which reflects the trend and its stability, as well as by relative time series, i.e. growth rates, which reflects the stability of the change rate
Summary
The Greater Tumen Initiative (GTI) is an intergovernmental system of cooperation between four countries – China, Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and the Russian Federation in Northeast Asia (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea was a member of the GTI until 2009). The governments of the GTI member countries have pledged to strengthen economic cooperation and promote sustainable development and growth in Northeast Asia and especially in the Greater Tumen region, including Chinese northeastern provinces – Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning, and Inner Mongolia, along with eastern provinces of Mongolia, eastern port cities of the Republic of Korea, and Primorsky Krai of Russia. Mitsek (2018) provides the similar study and presents Russian economy econometric model, that enables retrospective and predictive analysis of economy dynamics Such authors as Ono (2017), who devoted his paper to establish the link between the financial crisis and economic growth in Russia, and Bayramov et al (2020), who studied the mediumterm impact of economic sanctions on development in Russia, and within the countries of the ex-USSR
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