Abstract
Abstract. Our previously published paper (Permadi et al. 2018) focused on the preparation of emission input data and evaluation of WRF–CHIMERE performance in 2007. This paper details the impact assessment of the future (2030) black carbon (BC) emission reduction measures for Southeast Asia (SEA) countries on air quality, health and BC direct radiative forcing (DRF). The business as usual (BAU2030) projected emissions from the base year of 2007 (BY2007), assuming “no intervention” with the linear projection of the emissions based on the past activity data for Indonesia and Thailand and the sectoral GDP growth for other countries. The RED2030 featured measures to cut down emissions in major four source sectors in Indonesia and Thailand (road transport, residential cooking, industry, biomass open burning) while for other countries the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emissions were assumed. WRF–CHIMERE simulated levels of aerosol species under BAU2030 and RED2030 for the modeling domain using the base year meteorology and 2030 boundary conditions from LMDZ-INCA. The extended aerosol optical depth module (AODEM) calculated the total columnar AOD and BC AOD for all scenarios with an assumption on the internal mixing state. Under RED2030, the health benefits were analyzed in terms of the number of avoided premature deaths associated with ambient PM2.5 reduction along with BC DRF reduction. Under BAU2030, the average number of the premature deaths per 100 000 people in the SEA domain would increase by 30 from BY2007 while under RED2030 the premature deaths would be cut down (avoided) by 63 from RED2030. In 2007, the maximum annual average BC DRF in the SEA countries was 0.98 W m−2, which would increase to 2.0 W m−2 under BAU2030 and 1.4 W m−2 under RED2030. Substantial impacts on human health and BC DRF reduction in SEA could result from the emission measures incorporated in RED2030. Future works should consider other impacts, such as for agricultural crop production, and the cost–benefit analysis of the measures' implementation to provide relevant information for policy making.
Highlights
IntroductionThe interaction between aerosol (fine particles suspended in the atmosphere) and climate has gained an increasing attention from the scientific community, especially to assess various emission control measures for near-term climate change mitigation
The interaction between aerosol and climate has gained an increasing attention from the scientific community, especially to assess various emission control measures for near-term climate change mitigation
This study is a continuation of our previous paper (Permadi et al, 2018, focusing on the model performance evaluation for the base year of 2007 (BY2007)) and presents the development of two emission scenarios for Southeast Asia (SEA) in 2030 (BAU2030 and RED2030) to assess the associated impacts on the premature mortality and black carbon (BC) direct radiative forcing (DRF) in the region
Summary
The interaction between aerosol (fine particles suspended in the atmosphere) and climate has gained an increasing attention from the scientific community, especially to assess various emission control measures for near-term climate change mitigation. Black carbon (BC) particles in the atmosphere strongly absorb solar radiation, exerting a positive direct radiative forcing (DRF). BC interacts with the cloud formation processes and once depositing on snow it reduces the surface albedo and affects Earth’s radiation energy balance (Myhre et al, 2001). Several global modeling studies estimated present-day BC radiative forcing of +0.2– +1.1 W m−2; BC has been recognized as the secondmost important global warming agent after CO2 Permadi et al.: Assessment of impacts of black carbon emission scenarios in Southeast Asia in 2030
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