Assessment of ecosystem stability in the agro-pastoral transitional zone for local sustainable management: A case study in Duolun County, northern China

Abstract

Assessing the ecosystem stability and the influencing factors in the fragile ecosystem of the agro-pastoral transitional zone of Northern China (APTZNC) is essential for the sustainable provision of multiple ecosystem services and adaptive ecosystem management. In this study, we selected Duolun County in the APTZNC as the study area. The ecosystem stability was assessed in terms of resistance and resilience, and the factors influencing the spatial distribution of stability were explored. The results showed that the mean value of ecosystem resistance in the study area was 0.61 (at a medium–high level), while the mean values of resilience and stability were 0.38 and 0.36, respectively, (at a medium–low level) in the past 21 years. The spatial patterns of ecosystem resistance, resilience, and stability showed significant spatial heterogeneity. Temperature and elevation were both negatively correlated with ecosystem resistance. At the same time, human activities and socioeconomics are the key factors which influence the distribution of stability indicators. The population density and gross domestic product show a correlation with stability, and the stability also varies across different land uses. Forest ecosystems showed high stability compared to croplands and grasslands when exposed to the same climate change perturbations; cropland ecosystems with a high intensity of human disturbance showed a loss of stability, while grassland ecosystems showed a gradual improvement in stability. These findings can provide effective information for sustainable management of different regions or ecosystem types in the context of climate change and intensified human activities.