Abstract
Assessment of drought vulnerability and occurrence zones in North Central Nigeria was carried out in this study using standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 12 months’ time scale was computed from long-term rainfall data between 1960 and 2015 obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) Abuja. The SPI results were further subjected to Mann-Kendal and Sen’s slope analysis for trend detection. To assess the vulnerability of drought and occurrence zones, the SPI and other geo-spatial techniques were employed to generate drought vulnerability maps for three epochs: 2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2015 respectively. The SPI values were interpolated using Inverse Weighted (IDW) techniques in ArcGIS10.5 to generate the vulnerability maps for the selected model years. The outcome of drought trend and vulnerability maps reveals increasing drought trend dominated by near normal and moderate conditions in Abuja, Ilorin and Lokoja while moderate and severe droughts were observed in Minna and Jos. The study therefore recommends holistic drought monitoring and management strategies in order to mitigate its adverse impact on water resources and rainfall-dependent agriculture.
Highlights
Drought is a devastating disaster that is known globally due to its subtle effects on agriculture, forestry, vegetation and human economic activities [1]
While 1972 and 1976 are indicative of moderate drought, severe drought occurred in 1980 and 1984.The time series analysis revealed that, the station experienced below rainfall in 1972, 1974, 1980, 1984 as well as 1998, and 2004 before reaching its peak in 2010. It is evident from the results of the analysis presented in Figure 5 below, that Minna is highly vulnerable to drought risk
Rainfall Variability The study concludes that spatiotemporal variation in rainfall exists in the study area
Summary
Drought is a devastating disaster that is known globally due to its subtle effects on agriculture, forestry, vegetation and human economic activities [1]. E. Weli deficiency of water in the air and soil in the process of evapotranspiration [2]. Weli deficiency of water in the air and soil in the process of evapotranspiration [2] To this end, the importance of rainfall as a critical determinant of drought and the climate system cannot be overemphasized. For effective conceptualization of the subject matter, it becomes imperative that drought should be comprehensively investigated for proper and efficient understanding of its characteristics and vulnerability especially in North Central Nigeria [3]
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