ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT PROCESS WITH INTEGRATED MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION-MAKING METHODS

Abstract

This study aimed to prioritize the factors affecting the drought, which is an important issue for the sustainability of agricultural production, and classify the factors by the severity of dry periods. An integrated decision model based on multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques, Entropy, TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and MAUT (Multi Attribute Utility Theory) methods, was presented in the study. The proposed decision model was applied on a numerical case study to determine the drought periods, considering some climatic parameters between 1971 and 2019 in Kırşehir province. The Entropy-weighted results relative to TOPSIS and MAUT methods indicated 17 drought years within the last 49 years, and the drought severity in 17 years was classified in three different levels as weak, moderate and severe. Ten out of 17 years were weakly drought (20.41%), 6 of them were moderate drought (12.24%), and 1 year was serious drought (2.04%). The results of MAUT method showed that 11 of 17 years were weak drought (22.45%), 5 were moderate drought (10.20%) and 1 was serious drought (2.04%). The results revealed that the use of multi-criteria decision making models such as Entropy, TOPSIS and MAUT can support the decision analysis for combating agricultural drought in fruit growing by using long-term climatic factors.