Assessment of Drought Characteristics and Trend Analysis in Antalya Basin, Turkey

Abstract

Drought is a phenomenon related to water scarcity due to decrease in precipitation over a long period of time. It is also identified as a natural and a recurrent feature of climate, although many erroneously consider it as a rare and random event. The understanding and trend analysis of historical drought is vital for the future development and management of water resources. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at SPI 1, 3, 6 and 12 month time scales was computed using long time series (1970-2007) of monthly precipitation data observed at 9 meteorological stations in Antalya Basin, Turkey. The computed SPI values were, then, subjected to the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s Rho (SR) statistical trend analyses. Based on the results of the study, most of the results of SPI determined for above indicated time-scales, were found to fall under “No Drought” and “Near Normal” drought intensity classes. Though there are variations in the values of the drought characteristics considered in the study, the values did not show spatial pattern. In addition, significant trend without spatial pattern was observed in the SPI 12 values determined for almost all of the stations considered in the study.