Assessment of Drought and Desertification Outlook in China Using Meteorological Drought Indices

Abstract

Changing land use patterns in China may result in adverse impacts on the climate in Northeast Asia. In particular, desertification of the Chinese mainland can also have a significant influence on the climate in South Korea, such as the occurrence of yellow dust storms. This study aimed to forecast the desertification in China through a comprehensive drought analysis. Three drought indices namely, SPI, GEVI, and SPEI, were determined for eight cities in China namely, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Xianyang, Urumqi, Chongqing, Wuhan, and Weihai. There was a strong correlation between SPI and SPEI, while GEVI showed a slightly lower correlation. The long-term droughts that can trigger desertification exhibited high correlations among the considered indices. To assess the impact of climate change, periods of severe drought occurrence were compared in ten-year intervals since 1970. It was observed that severe droughts occurred throughout China in the 1970s and 1990s. However, there was no apparent trend in increasing drought days or worsening drought conditions. Desertification in China can be influenced not only by the rainfall but also by the changes in land use pattern and exploitation of water resources. Therefore, additional research is deemed necessary to evaluate desertification in China.