Assessment of diagnostic capacity and decision-making based on the 2015 American Thyroid Association ultrasound classification system

Abstract

BACKGROUNDThis study evaluates the American Thyroid Association (ATA) ultrasound (US) classification system for the initial assessment of thyroid nodules to determine if it indeed facilitates clinical decision-making. AIMTo perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of the diagnostic value of the ATA US classification system for the initial assessment of thyroid nodules. METHODSIn accordance with the PRISMA statement for diagnostic test accuracy, we selected articles that evaluated the 2015 ATA US pattern guidelines using a diagnostic gold standard. We analyzed these cases using traditional diagnostic parameters, as well as the threshold approach to clinical decision-making and decision curve analysis. RESULTSWe reviewed 13 articles with 8445 thyroid nodules, which were classified according to 2015 ATA patterns. Of these, 46.62% were malignant. No cancer was found in any of the ATA benign pattern nodules. The Bayesian analysis post-test probability for cancer in each classification was: (1) Very-low suspicion, 0.85%; (2) Low, 2.6%; (3) Intermediate, 6.7%; and (4) High, 40.9%. The net benefit (NB), expressed as avoided interventions, indicated that the highest capacity to avoid unnecessary fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) in the patterns that we studied was 42, 31, 35, and 43 of every 100 FNABs. The NB calculation for a probability threshold of 11% for each of the ATA suspicion patterns studied is less than that of performing FNAB on all nodules. CONCLUSIONThese three types of analysis have shown that only the ATA high-suspicion diagnostic pattern is clinically useful, in which case, FNAB should be performed. However, the curve decision analysis has demonstrated that using the ATA US risk patterns to decide which patients need FNAB does not provide a greater benefit than performing FNAB on all thyroid nodules. Therefore, it is likely that a better way to approach the assessment of thyroid nodules would be to perform FNAB on all non-cystic nodules, as the present analysis has shown the ATA risk patterns do not provide an adequate clinical decision-making framework.