Assessment of cross‐border implications of economic and financial information for central European emerging stock market of Poland in times of the current financial crisis

Abstract

PurposeThe current paper aims to expand an empirical assessment of correlations of the stock exchange in Poland with other stock markets and foreign economies. The paper attempts to explore international spillover effects during the current financial crisis.Design/methodology/approachThe study builds upon questionnaires and interviews with practitioners associated with the Polish stock market. The interviewees represent both the advanced and emerging European economies. At this point, analyzing the notions of a cross‐section of experts from different geographical regions increases the value of the findings. The interviewees were asked to comment on a wide range of examples mirroring the reaction of the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) to economic and financial information derived from foreign markets in times of the current financial crisis. An empirical model evaluating the cross‐border implications for the Polish stock market was specified. The model encompassed a wide range of variables and events influencing the performance of the Polish stock market and investors' uncertainty during the nascent financial crisis. Semi‐structured interviews complemented the quantitatively obtained findings and allowed for a gap between theory and practice to be bridged. The qualitative approach injected a dose of realism into the empirical model utilized in the paper and contributed to the value of general findings.FindingsThe current paper reports initial responses of the WIG20 indexed equity prices to 41 economic and financial information sets, originating from systemically significant markets. The influence of these sets is ranked in accordance with their influential powers. The ranking indicates which information events are more likely to be prioritized by investors associated with the WSE and which news are ignored in times of the current financial crisis. Henceforth, the findings outline the crisis‐induced changes in the uncertainty of equity investors and the implications for investment decision making processes. Comparing the responses to economic and financial information sets among different stock markets and industries delivers insight into the profitability of the international portfolio diversification based on either the country or industry specific factors.Originality/valueThe paper focuses on the Polish stock market, which is relatively under‐researched by the existing body of literate. However, Poland's stock market became a leading central European bourse during the current financial crisis. Reporting a number of useful and important implications for the practitioners associated with the WSE constitutes the core value of the paper.