Assessment of coupling coordination degree and water resources carrying capacity of Hebei Province (China) based on WRESP2D2P framework and GTWR approach

Abstract

• A multi-system multi-layer theoretical framework is proposed for the first time. • Sustainable development measures was selected as indicators. • Improved TOPSIS model is used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity. • Standard deviation ellipses were applied to analyze the WRCC orientation. • WRCC and GTWR model are combined for the first time. Water resources system (WRS), socio-economic system (SES) and Ecological environment system (EES) are systems closely related to the sustainable development of cities. It is crucial to accurately evaluate the Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and the Coupling coordination degree (CCD) among the systems for sustainable development. The paper proposed a conceptual framework of Water Resources Endowment-Support-Pressure-Development-Destructiveness-Protection-Promotion(WRESP2D2P) and constructed an index system with 20 indicators. The improved TOPSIS model and Geographic spatiotemporal weighted model (GTWR) were applied to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity and analyze the key factors affecting the WRCC. Findings showed that (1) CCD in 11 cities of HBP are in a state of reluctant coordination from 2011 to 2018. (2) Although the Water resources carrying capacity index(WRCCI) of 11 cities is increasing, Water resources carrying capacity grade(WRCCG) of most cities are in Grades III and IV, which is in a state of critical carrying state and slight overload. (3) Spatially, the distribution pattern of WRCC of HBP changes from Northeast to Southwest. (4) The factors affecting WRCC have spatial and temporal heterogeneity. (5) The per capita water resources is the most dominant factor affecting the WRCC in HBP. The study proposed a multi-system, multi-layer index system, aiming to provide a scientific basis for urban sustainable natural resources management.