Assessment of coupled CRCM5–FLake on the reproduction of wintertime lake-induced precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin

Abstract

This study assesses the high-resolution, 0.11° (12 km), Canadian Regional Climate Model Version 5 (CRCM5), interactively coupled to the one-dimensional Freshwater Lake model (FLake), to predict wintertime precipitation along the Canadian snowbelts of Lake Superior and Lake Huron. CRCM5–FLake was compared against various datasets to evaluate the 20-year (1995–2014) SWE and wintertime precipitation, seven lake-induced precipitation events and lake effect snowfall (LES) predictor variables during the months of December and January. The findings of SWE along both snowbelts in December and January show MBD ≤− 10 mm and ≤− 30 mm, respectively. Similarly, precipitation results along both snowbelts in December and January show MBD ≤− 5 mm and ≤− 10 mm, respectively. The negative biases in simulated SWE and precipitation, predominantly along the snowbelts, suggest that the model may un-realistically represent lake effect processes. Comparison of lake-induced precipitation events also indicates that the model mostly under-predicts the daily accumulated precipitation associated with each event but tends to accurately capture the timing and the general location of the squalls along the snowbelts, though not for highly localised snow bands. Furthermore, lake-wide results of LES predictor variables indicate that the model over-estimates lake surface temperature (LST) for both lakes during December and January and under-estimates ice cover concentrations for both lakes in December. The resultant biases could be attributed to limitations within the coupled RCM because the quality of reproducing lake-induced precipitation in this region is highly dependent on the performance of FLake.