Abstract
This study assesses the performance of 46 global climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) - CMIP6 and selects better models in simulating the precipitation and the air temperature at 2 meters height climatology over tropical South America (SA) during the historical period (1996-2014). For this reason, some statistical measures are computed. A great number of models have a small bias when compared with observation, however, a lot of them have a poor performance in terms of the Willmott agreement index, which indicates a low performance in representing the temporal variability. Among the 46 models, E3SM-1-0, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-AerChem, EC-Earth3-Veg, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR and TaiESM1 have a better performance in reproducing SA climate. When the ensemble of the 7 models is compared with that 46 models, there is a reduction in the bias of the variables under study in some sectors of the SA. This indicates that the use of 7 models is enough for application in other studies. Avaliação de Simulações do CMIP6 sobre a América do Sul Tropical R E S U M OEste estudo avalia o desempenho de 46 modelos climáticos globais do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Fase 6) - CMIP6 e seleciona os que melhor simulam a climatologia da precipitação e temperatura do ar a 2 metros de altura sobre a América do Sul (AS) tropical durante o período histórico (1996-2014). Para isso, são calculadas algumas medidas estatísticas. Enquanto a maioria dos modelos apresenta um viés aceitável quando comparados com a observação, muitos deles mostram uma baixa performance em termos do índice de concordância de Willmott, o que indica menor habilidade em representar a variabilidade temporal. Entre os 46 modelos, E3SM-1-0, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-AerChem, EC-Earth3-Veg, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-LR e TaiESM1 têm maior habilidade em reproduzir o clima da AS. Quando o ensemble desses 7 modelos é comparado com composto de 46 modelos, apresenta redução no viés das variáveis em estudo em alguns setores da AS. Isso indica, que a utilização de 7 modelos é suficiente para aplicação em outros estudos.Palavras-chave: CMIP6; América do Sul Tropical; validação; variáveis atmosféricas
Highlights
The need to systematize the analyses of the coupled ocean and atmosphere models from multiple climate modeling centers lead to the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) to create the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) in September 1995 (Eyring et al, 2016; Carlson et al, 2017)
The purpose of this study is to identify the Global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 that better represent the South American tropical climate in terms of precipitation and air temperature
Statistical Analyses a) Spatial representation: The first step of this study is to present the seasonal and annual maps of precipitation and air temperature at 2 m for the observation and the ensemble and the spatial bias between them
Summary
The need to systematize the analyses of the coupled ocean and atmosphere models from multiple climate modeling centers lead to the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) to create the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) in September 1995 (Eyring et al, 2016; Carlson et al, 2017). CMIP has developed climate model experiment protocols to ensure model output availability to a wide research community (Carlson et al, 2017). Global climate models (GCMs) of CMIP have provided useful information to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports over the years. The researchers produce scientific papers with these data and IPCC collects and synthesizes them. CMIP outputs have been used as initial and boundary conditions in regional climate models (RCMs; Elguindi et al, 2014; Gutowski Jr. et al, 2016; Ambrizzi et al, 2018)
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