Assessment of climatic variability risks with application of livelihood vulnerability indices

Abstract

The study applies vulnerability index models to appraise livelihood vulnerability to climate change of human communities living in coastal fronts of some selected mouzas of Namkhana Block part of the Indian Sundarbans. Primary household surveys (528 households in seven mouzas) are carried out to procure data on indicators of socio-demographic profile, livelihood strategies, health, food, water, social networks, natural disaster and climatic fluctuations. The data then have been processed by indices like livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and livelihood vulnerability index-intergovernmental panel on climate change (LVI-IPCC) to evaluate and compare vulnerabilities of mouzas currently suffering from physical processes like coastal erosion, embankment breaching and flood events. The research outcome implies that Baliara and Iswaripur mouzas are highly vulnerable (LVI score > 0.600 and LVI-IPCC score > 0.170); Narayanpur, Mousuni, Kusumtala mouzas are moderately vulnerable (LVI score 0.540–0.600 and LVI-IPCC score 0.060–0.170); and Bagdanga, Patibania mouzas are least vulnerable (LVI score > 0.540 and LVI-IPCC score < 0.060) to changing climate phenomena. The foremost reasons behind higher vulnerability are greater exposure to climatic fluctuation, natural hazards and higher sensitivity to improper access to food, health, water and finally lower adaptive capacity in terms of poor socio-demographic profile and livelihood security. Findings of the study provide a deeper understanding of people’s perception, adaptation and their ever-increasing vulnerability to changing climate. This approach based on indicators emphasizes sectors that necessitate particular intercession to design management plans for threatened communities. Such type of pragmatic approach of study formulates reliable methodology to quantify vulnerability and develop disaster management strategies to increase the resilience of vulnerable coastal people to climate change.