Assessment of climatic limits of needle cast–affected area under climate change in Central Siberia

Abstract

The relationships between climate (January and July temperatures, annual precipitation, and a relative moisture index) and the number of foci and intensity of the needle cast disease caused by fungi from the genus Lophodermium Chevall. in the Scots pine nurseries and provenance trials in Krasnoyarsk krai have been studied using multivariate statistics methods. It is found that peaks in the disease occurrence are related to the warm and humid weather conditions. Bioclimatic models of the needle cast ranges have been built using the climate variables; the spatial dynamics of the disease occurrence have been projected under various scenarios of climate warming over the 21st century. Model experiments have shown that the needle cast disease would shift northwards into the new regions in Krasnoyarsk krai, where the phytopathogen has not yet been registered in the nurseries. The largest forest areas exposed to needle cast disease are predicted to be at a high risk of outbreaks by 2020 under moderate climate warming. With a significant warming trend by 2080, potential risk areas will be reduced, because the pine expansion into the permafrost zone should be limited by slow thawing of its active layer.