Assessment of climate vulnerability in the Norwegian built environment

H O Hygen,A J Almås,C F Øyen

doi:10.5194/asr-6-151-2011

Abstract

Abstract. The main trends expected for the change of Norwegian climate for this century are increasing temperatures, precipitation and wind. This indicates a probable increase of climate-related risks to the Norwegian built environment. Through co-operation between the Norwegian Meteorological Institute and SINTEF Building and Infrastructure, building and climate information have been combined to estimate changes in strain to the built environment due to climate change. The results show that the risk of wood decay will increase for the whole country. Almost two million buildings will be subject to an increase in risk of wood decay from medium to high level. Similar analyses have been performed for other climate indices, demonstrating a clear increase in potential damages due to water and humidity, while frost damage probably will decrease.

Highlights

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute has an archive of daily historic grids of precipitation and temperature with a resolution of 1 km by 1 km
Downscaling of scenarios for future climate based on global climate models and local climate knowledge has matured to a stage where the same kind of grids are available for various projections of future climate (Engen-Skaugen et al, 2007)
The method classifies all the indices in zones according to threat level, and counts the number of buildings in each zone both for historical climate data and future climate data

Summary

Introduction

The Norwegian Meteorological Institute has an archive of daily historic grids of precipitation and temperature with a resolution of 1 km by 1 km. Downscaling of scenarios for future climate based on global climate models and local climate knowledge has matured to a stage where the same kind of grids are available for various projections of future climate (Engen-Skaugen et al, 2007). SINTEF Building and Infrastructure and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute have a history ofco-operation. In the research project Climate 2000, one of the projects focused on developing robust building techniques. A series of climate-indices were developed or adapted to the Norwegian climate. Examples of such indices are wood decay (Lisø, 2006), frost decay (Lisø et al, 2007) and driving rain (Rydock et al, 2005)

Methods

Results

Conclusion