Abstract
This study was undertaken mainly to 1) investigate temporal trends in annual rainfall and temperature; 2) identify discontinuities in the time series; and 3) assess the Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULC) in the Somone coastal lagoon, within the river basin. The study examined temporal trends in rainfall (1931-2016) and temperature (1961-2016) datasets of Somone river basin, and breaks in time series using Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and other suitable statistical tools. Temporal evolution in LULC was assessed for the years 1954, 1978, 2003 and 2016. Analysis indicates a significant decreasing trend in precipitation over the basin. These trends are much more pronounced for minimum and average rainfall than for maximum and annual amplitudes. Contrary to precipitation, surface air temperature shows a significant increasing trend for its minimum and averages, and a decreasing trend for its maximum and amplitudes. A significant break in precipitation was observed in 1958, while surface air temperature presents much longer breaks within the years 1975 and 1977, and 1991 and 1993. A more direct implication of climate change on LULC patterns is increased in unproductive salt pans (Sabkhas). Increase in Sabkhas gave rise to conversion of forest lands to agricultural lands of local farmers in search for fertile soils to cater for the food needs of a growing population. Otherwise, the development of the settlements, favored by the tourism activity and agriculture crisis, is another cause of croplands decreasing. The findings of the present research clearly indicate that the impacts of climate change are exacerbated by rapid urbanization in the basin.
Highlights
Climate changes intricate relationship with the hydrologic cycle [1], and exerts strong influence on water availability, as well as its quantity and quality [1] [2], especially in wetlands [3] [4]
Results from the Global Circulation Models (GCMs) show that rainfall remains largely uncertain for the West African region
The breaking date given by the Buishand ellipse corresponds to the date indicated by the Hubert test for each of the four temperature categories considered
Summary
Climate changes intricate relationship with the hydrologic cycle [1], and exerts strong influence on water availability, as well as its quantity and quality [1] [2], especially in wetlands [3] [4]. Sea level rise and other consequences of global warming, such as increased storm flooding, inundation, coastal erosion and extreme heat events are expected to have negative consequences on global wetlands such as estuaries and coastal lagoons, through alteration of their hydrologic regime [3] [5]. Inundation of these low lying coastal areas may render them unfavorable to dependent flora and fauna, inclusive of migratory birds that rely on such habitats for resting and feeding during their winter migration [6]. Since the late 1970s, temperature has been increasing at rates between 0.2 ̊C to 0.8 ̊C, and since the end of the 1970s per decade [13], temperature has been projected to further increase by between 3.0 ̊C and 4.0 ̊C [11]
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