Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

Abstract

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation. This study introduces a comprehensive, multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) framework for evaluating climate damage in China, utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario. Employing a bottom-up approach, the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors, recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China, and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss, market climate loss, and aggregate climate loss. The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise. By 2050, the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%, 5.7%, and 8.2% of GDP under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Additionally, both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2% of GDP by 2050, while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%, which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors. From a sectoral perspective, under the RCP8.5 scenario, human health damage constitutes the largest share (61.9%) of the total climate loss by 2050, followed by sea-level rise damage (18.6%). This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors, particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.