Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability at the Local Level: A Case Study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova)

Roman Corobov,Ghennadi Sîrodoev,Nickolai Denisov,Sonja Koeppel,Igor Sîrodoev

doi:10.1155/2013/173794

Abstract

Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin's natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial “scale” of the assessment, Moldova's administrative-territorial units (ATUs) were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971–2000) temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021–2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin's “hotspots” were discussed with public participation.

Highlights

The measurement of vulnerability to climate change is a central moment in adaptation activity to mitigate adverse climatic impacts
Research on vulnerability to this phenomenon must address at least three important challenges: (1) to improve approaches for comparing and aggregating impacts across diverse sectors and populations, (2) to model socioeconomic transformation in assessing the significance of these impacts, and (3) to account for multiple dimensions. Among the latter Moss et al [8] named the physical-environmental impacts of a changing climate, a capacity to recover from extreme events and adapt to climate change over the longer term, and the degree to which international links and other connections assist a region in its coping and adaptive efforts
The assessment was based on the analysis of historical observations of temperature and precipitation in the 30year baseline period (1971–2000) and the projections of their changes for the middle of the 21st century (2021–2050), kindly provided by Krakovskaya [20]

Summary

Introduction

The measurement of vulnerability to climate change is a central moment in adaptation activity to mitigate adverse climatic impacts Both natural and social scientists try to measure and assess such vulnerability, whether from the perspective of regions, socioecological systems, or individuals. Research on vulnerability to this phenomenon must address at least three important challenges: (1) to improve approaches for comparing and aggregating impacts across diverse sectors and populations, (2) to model socioeconomic transformation in assessing the significance of these impacts, and (3) to account for multiple dimensions Among the latter Moss et al [8] named the physical-environmental impacts of a changing climate, a capacity to recover from extreme events and adapt to climate change over the longer term, and the degree to which international links and other connections assist a region (country) in its coping and adaptive efforts. The existence of competing conceptualizations and terminologies of vulnerability is problematic since they are characterized by intense collaboration between scholars

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