ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN NATURAL AREAS OF THE TURKESTAN REGION OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN FOR THE PURPOSES OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL AND RECREATIONAL NATURE MANAGEMENT

Abstract

The article presents the scientific results of a study for assessing climate change trends in natural areas of the Turkestan region of the Republic of Kazakhstan based on the use of long-term climate data (1940-2020) of sixteen meteorological stations located in the region. In the course of the study, tested domestic, international and proprietary methodology for assessing climate change in natural areas were used based on plotting a fixed time series of climatic indicators and the resulting equations of linear trends. The results of the study showed that the average annual air temperature in all natural areas of the Turkestan region tend to increase, and the amount of annual precipitation to decrease, this has a negative impact on the development of recreational and agricultural nature management. On the basis of the developed mathematical models of changes in climatic indicators that characterize the coefficient of coincidence of the growth rates of average annual air temperature and annual precipitation, their quantitative values were determined in the territories of the natural areas of the region, which influence the formation of the environment-forming functions of the natural system. The results of the study enable economic entities, especially farms, to organize sustainable agricultural environmental management, and management bodies to develop plans for the development of recreational tourism in the Turkestan region.