Abstract
ABSTRACT This paper investigates climate change impacts on hydrology and water quality of Brazilian semiarid reservoirs. An integrated approach coupling climate, hydrological and water quality models was proposed. Five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) were used for the projections. The simulations showed that uncertainty in climate forecast significantly impacted hydrological and water quality outputs. Some scenarios revealed a strong decrease in streamflow and storage volume. On the other land, 40% of multi-GCMs projections indicated reservoir eutrophication. The impacts on hydrology and water quality under SSP5-8.5 were more significant than under SSP2-4.5. The results also indicated that drought events may be prolonged under climate change, principally at the end of the 21st century for SSP5-8.5, and may significantly increase the total phosphorus concentration. This suggests that tropical semiarid reservoirs could be more vulnerable to eutrophication in scenarios of climate change than those in other regions.
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