ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CROP YIELDS AND FARMERS’ ADAPTATION MEASURES: a case of Rwanda

Abstract

Climate change, one of the challenges facing the world today, is increasingly affecting people‟s livelihood in Rwanda like in other developing countries. This research assesses the impacts of climate change on yields of major food crops and analyzes adaptation measures perceived and undertaken by smallholder farmers in Rwanda. Secondary data obtained from Ministry of Agricultural and Animal Resources (MINAGRI), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and 16 stations under Rwanda Meteorological Agency (RMA) were collected to describe the trends in climatic and non- climatic variables and assess the impact of climate change on crop yield. In addition, a household survey of 350 households was conducted in 4 districts (Bugesera, Gicumbi, Nyabihu and Nyamagabe) to examine socio-economic characteristics that influence the choice of actual adaptation measures. To assess the impacts of climate change on crop yields, regression model was used after obtaining lagged values of model variables. Heckman probit selection and outcome models were employed to analyze farmers‟ perception on climate change in the first stage and farmers‟ adaptation to climate change in the second stage. Moreover, multinomial logistic regression model was used to determine the factors that influence farmers‟ choice of climate change adaptation option in the study area. Results from the analysis of time series data show that area harvested and annual rainfall are positively and significantly related to yields of selected crops while maximum temperature have a negative impact on beans, maize and Irish potato yields. Climatic variable like minimum temperature found to have a negative effect only on maize yield. Micro-level findings substantiate that farming experience and access to information on climate change have a positive and significant influence on farmers‟ perceptions of climate change at 1% level of significance. Other variables such as education, farm size and livestock ownership are positively and significantly related to the choice of adaptation measures. Further interventions should focus on how the knowledge of farmers about climate change can be increased and the established adaptation measures by government can be owned and maintained by farmers through their different mechanisms such as farmer cooperatives and other social capital mechanisms.