Abstract
The authors explore the uncertainty implied in the estimation of changes in flood frequency due to climate change at the basins of the Cedar River and Skunk River in Iowa, United States. The study focuses on the influence of climate change on the 100-year flood, used broadly as a reference flow for civil engineering design. Downscaled rainfall projections between 1960–2099 were used as forcing into a hydrological model for producing discharge projections at locations intersecting vulnerable transportation infrastructure. The annual maxima of the discharge projections were used to conduct flood frequency analyses over the periods 1960–2009 and 1960–2099. The analysis of the period 1960–2009 is a good predictor of the observed flood values for return periods between 2 and 200 years in the studied basins. The findings show that projected flood values could increase significantly in both basins. Between 2009 and 2099, 100-year flood could increase between 47% and 52% in Cedar River, and between 25% and 34% in South Skunk River. The study supports a recommendation for assessing vulnerability of infrastructure to climate change, and implementation of better resiliency and hydraulic design practices. It is recommended that engineers update existing design standards to account for climate change by using the upper-limit confidence interval of the flood frequency analyses that are currently in place.
Highlights
Climate change can increase the likelihood of occurrence and strength of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation events [1], which might lead to cause more flooding in some regions
Are presented the detailed results of our methodology in the catchment of the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids (~16,840 km2 ), and a summary of the findings at the six catchments selected in this study
A1FI, CGCM3T47 A1B and CNRM A1B models reach values of up to 8000 m3 /s. These peaks would correspond to flood values with a return period greater than 500 years when compared to historical observations [44]
Summary
Climate change can increase the likelihood of occurrence and strength of extreme weather such as extreme precipitation events [1], which might lead to cause more flooding in some regions. Changes in the frequency and intensity of flooding events may produce serious impacts on society, such as enormous economic, societal and environmental damage, including loss of lives. Many of the economic impacts of flooding are related to the damage on civil engineering infrastructure. There is a growing interest in learning about the impact of climate change on the engineering design of structures like bridges and culverts that are sited at the outlet of small and medium watersheds. Weather stresses might represent from 30% to 50% of current road maintenance costs in Europe [6].
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