Abstract
The article discusses the main approaches to an increase ofgrain production volume and maximum usage of bioclimatic potential in changing climatic conditions.Comprehensive assessment of factors of potential and actually possible crop production was studied. The initial information for the research was data of surface meteorological observations at six meteorological stations located on the territory of Ulyanovsk region from 1990 to 2019. For assessment of long-term changes of agrometeorological parameters, Fourier series expansion was used, parameters of the best sinusoidal approximation of the maximum and minimum points were determined. It was revealed that over the past three decades, there has been a steady increase oof the average annual temperature (5.2 ° C), especially in the cold season. Moisture supply is more chaotic, the change is heterogeneous, varying from 280 mm (2012) to 664 mm (2017) and the average value is 498 mm for 1990-2019. Barley has the greatest potential among grain crops in terms of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) (8.3 t/ha), rye has the smallest potential (6.4 t/ha). In terms of the amount of heat resources and moisture, rye has the maximum crop production, wheat is sensitive to moisture, barley - to temperature regime.
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