Assessment of blue water-green water interchange under extreme warm and dry events across different ecohydrological regions of western Canada

Abstract

As key drivers of terrestrial ecosystems and food production, green water (GW) and blue water (BW) are interlinked through natural and anthropogenic processes. Their relationship has reportedly been non-stationary, with an anticipated shift from BW to GW in the future. However, these potential shifts are poorly characterized, particularly in response to future extreme warm-dry events. To address this gap, we used a process-based agro-hydrological model to project GW-BW interlinkages and their potential shifts across three different ecohydrological regions – mountainous, crop, and natural lands – in the Nelson River Basin, the largest agricultural basin in Canada and a major breadbasket for the world. Our results indicate dissimilarity in the physical processes that link GW and BW across different ecohydrological regions, and therefore, disproportional projected changes in BW and GW. In mountainous and natural lands, with projected decreases in precipitation in extreme warm-dry years of up to 56% and 46% under SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, BW decreases by 64% and 42% while GW decreases only by 37% and 29%. The decline in GW is expected to be less because of the availability of evaporative water supplied by legacy soil moisture and groundwater contributions from earlier seasons. This available water to supply evaporative demand represents a delayed overall shift of BW to GW. In crop lands, however, results show a significant decrease of precipitation (45%-55%), BW (up to 42%), and GW (up to 42%), with no remarkable shift of BW to GW in extreme warm-dry years in the future. The projected BW and GW declines in crop lands may impose severe water shortages on local and regional food production. Projected declines in BW from the mountains that serve as source water for downstream irrigation may exacerbate such possible shortages.