Assessment of Aviation Safety Concepts: Phase I - Fighter Aircraft

Abstract

Abstract : Over the past 5O years, DOD has reduced its aviation Class-A mishap rate from well over 30 per l00,000 flying hours to 1.5. To facilitate further reduction, DUSD (Environmental Security) requested that the Institute for Defense Analyses assess a broad range of aviation safety concepts. This paper, which focuses on fighter aircraft, provides the results of the first phase of that study. This study analyzed all Class-A mishaps for current fighters, determined causal factors, projected future mishap rates in the absence of new concepts, and then estimated how selected high-payoff safety concepts could improve the rate. The study shows that some concepts are cost-effective in the classic sense, since investment to improve mishap rates in fighters not yet fielded can be paid for by reducing production, with no net reduction in numbers available or combat effectiveness. At the same time, even for aircraft whose production runs are complete, safety options are available that could save significant numbers of aircraft and aircrew lives at a cost comparable to the amount invested in the aircraft and aircrew that would otherwise be lost. The highest ranked concepts are the Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System (AGCAS) and the Midair Collision Avoidance System (MCAS).