Assessment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty for Ground‐Motion Intensity Measure Prediction in Turkey

Abstract

Research Article| December 11, 2018 Assessment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty for Ground‐Motion Intensity Measure Prediction in Turkey Zehra Çağnan; Zehra Çağnan aCivil Engineering Department, TED University, Ziya Gökalp Caddesi, No. 48, Kolej, 06420 Çankaya, Ankara, Turkey, zehra.cagnan@tedu.edu.tr Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Sinan Akkar Sinan Akkar bEarthquake Engineering Department, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Boğaziçi University, 34684 Çengelköy, Istanbul, Turkey, sinan.akkar@boun.edu.tr Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (1): 263–283. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180075 Article history first online: 11 Dec 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Zehra Çağnan, Sinan Akkar; Assessment of Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty for Ground‐Motion Intensity Measure Prediction in Turkey. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2018;; 109 (1): 263–283. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180075 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract In this study, we quantify the reduction in total sigma (⁠σtotal⁠) of the Turkish ground‐motion predictive models by partially removing the ergodic assumption. By partitioning residuals into four components: repeatable source‐specific and site‐specific deviations from the population mean as well as site‐corrected within‐event and source‐corrected between‐event parts, event‐corrected single‐station standard deviation (⁠ϕss⁠) and source‐corrected between‐event standard deviation (⁠τss⁠) models were derived. With site correction, σtotal was shown to reduce by 15%. With source correction as well, σtotal was shown to reduce by a further 15% at short‐ and long‐period ranges. The developed aleatory variability models are recommended to be used in hazard assessment studies of single sites under the dominant effect of the North Anatolian fault zone. Last but not least, we quantify the total ground‐motion variability by computing the model‐to‐model variability and statistical‐error components of epistemic uncertainty corresponding to two recent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment efforts for Turkey. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.