Abstract
Recently, China has brought out several air-pollution control policies, which indicate the prominent position that PV power hold in improving atmosphere environment. Under this policy environment, the development of China’s PV power will be greatly affected. Firstly, after analyzing the influencing path of air-pollution control policies on PV power, this paper built a system dynamics model, which can be used as a platform for predicting China’s PV power development in every policy scenario during 2015–2025. Secondly, different model parameters are put into the SD model to simulate three scenarios of air-pollution control policies. Comparisons between the simulated results of different policy scenarios measure the air-pollution control policy’s impact on China’s PV power in the aspect of generation, installed capacity, power curtailment and so on. This paper points out the long-term development pattern of China’s PV power under latest incentive policies, and provides reference for the policymakers to increase the effect and efficiency of air-pollution control policies.
Highlights
China’s increasingly serious air-pollution problem is caused by its unreasonable energy developing pattern and the lack of pollution-controlling consciousness [1,2]
The macrolevel policies will increase the relative demand of PV power generation by limiting coal consumption
China’s PV power development during 2015–2025 in different policy scenarios are simulated by the System dynamics (SD) model we built above using Vensim software
Summary
China’s increasingly serious air-pollution problem is caused by its unreasonable energy developing pattern and the lack of pollution-controlling consciousness [1,2]. Suggestions to Improving PV Industry Development to match the requirement of air-pollution controlling for PV power industry These air-pollution control policies fully indicate the prominent position that PV power hold in improving atmosphere environment and promoting energy substitution. Microlevel policies will complete the electricity price and subsidy mechanism of PV power, give priority to the generation scheduling of PV power, and implement the full acquisition of PV power generation. This favor policy environment will bring China’s PV power an unprecedented developing opportunity [8,9]. In 2014, China’s installed PV capacity reached only 28,050 MW accounting for less than 1% of the total
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