Assessment of airborne transmitted infection risk in classrooms using computational fluid dynamics and machine learning-based surrogate modeling

Abstract

In recent years, the assessment of airborne transmitted infection risk has been extensively performed using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, especially in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, the high computational demands and time-intensive nature of CFD simulations highlight the need for fast or real-time infection risk predictions. This capability is crucial for swift decision-making in dynamic environments where timely health interventions are critical. This paper presents a thorough analysis of airborne infection risks in classroom environments based on CFD simulations to understand key factors such as ventilation strategies, air change rates, occupant arrangements, source locations, and particle sizes. This study also employs data-driven supervised learning methods—specifically, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)—to generate surrogate models for predicting airborne infection risk. Key findings reveal that different ventilation strategies significantly affect airborne infection risk, reducing it by 49 %–77 %. Moreover, the conventional Wells-Riley model was identified as lacking in its ability to accurately predict local infection risks. The study further challenges the assumption that higher air change rates are universally beneficial, considering that occupants seated in the back rows of a classroom experienced up to a 166 % increased risk, despite elevating air change rates from 1.1 h−1 to 11 h−1. These results suggest that physical distancing alone may be insufficient and highlight the importance of considering other factors such as occupant arrangements. Regarding the model performance, the ANN-based surrogate model demonstrated varying prediction accuracy. For inhalable particle concentration predictions for susceptible occupants, R2 values ranged from 0.31 to 0.65 with CVRMSE values between 100 % and 180 %. In contrast, the model achieved an R2 of 0.79 and a CVRMSE of 34 % for infectors. The insights and methodologies from this study can inform HVAC system design and operation strategies to better mitigate infectious disease transmission in densely occupied indoor environments.