Abstract
The goal of this study was to assess the goodness-of-fit of theoretical models of population dynamics of Aedes aegypti to trap data collected by a long term entomological surveillance program. The carrying capacity K of this vector was estimated at city and neighborhood level. Adult mosquito abundance was measured via adults collected weekly by a network of sticky traps (Mosquitraps) from January 2008 to December 2011 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. K was the only free parameter estimated by the model. At the city level, the model with temperature as a driver captured the seasonal pattern of mosquito abundance. At the local level, we observed a spatial heterogeneity in the estimated carrying capacity between neighborhoods, weakly associated with environmental variables related to poor infrastructure. Model goodness-of-fit was influenced by the number of sticky traps, and suggests a minimum of 16 traps at the neighborhood level for surveillance.
Highlights
Arthropod-borne viruses are responsible for a high disease burden worldwide [1, 2]
The city of Vitoria was monitored with 1410 traps
Entomological surveillance is a key component of any dengue control program
Summary
Arthropod-borne viruses are responsible for a high disease burden worldwide [1, 2]. Many arboviruses originally evolved and diversified in the tropics and currently show increasing virulence and invasive characteristics associated with abrupt and explosive outbreaks, even in temperate regions [3]. The main arthropod vectors involved in viral transmission to humans are ticks, sandflies and mosquitoes. Mosquitoes of the genus Aedes are among the most studied vectors due to their role on the transmission of several arboviruses with significant public. The abundance of Aedes aegypti in a territory is an important risk factor for the emergence and maintenance of these diseases [4], and many countries spend a large amount of resources on vector surveillance and transmission control measures. In Brazil as well as other countries that follow the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, the standard surveillance protocol is the household survey, which generates regular estimates of the Premise Index (PI), with values above 4% indicating risk of dengue outbreak [5]. Many studies have suggested that such larval indices are not sensitive or efficient for monitoring the female adult Aedes population, which is the mosquito subpopulation directly linked to virus transmission [6, 7]
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