Assessment of a multi-objective decision support system generated land use plan on forest fodder dependency in a Himalayan watershed

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of integrated watershed land use plans generated through multi-objective optimization techniques in a Central Himalayan watershed on forest fodder dependency for meeting fodder requirements of livestock in the watershed. Alternate land use plans were developed for optimizing four objective functions – maximizing farm income, employment and nutritional security, and minimizing soil loss individually and simultaneously at the watershed level. The analysis was carried under two capital availability scenarios (restricted and unrestricted). The values of cultivated land utilization index (CLUI), crop diversification index (CDI), cropping intensity (CI) and forest dependency were estimated for each plan. Inferior plans were eliminated by applying the Law of Dominance rule. Out of the several optimal plans generated, the best land use plan was selected by employing MODSS techniques. Annual fodder production, sustainable animal population and changes in forest dependency were then computed. Optimal plans suggested significant changes in the number of buffaloes and cows in the watershed and in land use. Under a restricted capital availability scenario, forest dependency would change from existing surplus fodder availability to a dependency of 31.96% under the optimal plan, while under unrestricted capital scenario, forest dependency would be about 29.6%. This technique for land use planning to balance farmer and environmental needs has potential to prepare plans that will reduce current trends of increased forest degradation in the Himalayas. Watershed development and forest management plans in the central middle Himalayan region would therefore need to incorporate several measures to improve forest productivity, in situ moisture conservation and develop effective participatory forest management plans. The complexity of sustainable watershed development in a highly heterogeneous landscape requires that such optimal land use plans be developed for various identified micro-watersheds to meet location specific social and environmental requirements in the Himalayan region.