Assessment and prediction of urban growth for a mega-city using CA-Markov model

Abstract

Most of World’s mega-cities are facing high population growth. To accommodate the increased population, new built-up areas are emerging at the periphery or fringe area of cities. New urbanisation has an adverse impact on the existing Land Use Land Cover (LULC). To monitor and analyse the impact of urbanisation, LULC change analysis has become the primary concern for LULC monitoring agencies. In this study, LULC change of Chennai has been assessed during 1981–2011 using temporal Landsat data. All the dataset has been classified using Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC). Quantitative change in LULC has been carried out using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient, Transition Potential Matrix, Land Use Dynamic Degree and MLC. Further, spatio-temporal change analysis has been performed using Post-classification comparison technique. Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) Model used for LULC prediction for 2021–2051. The urban area of Chennai has increased from 40.74 to 103.52 km2 during 1981–2011. Further, LULC prediction using the CA-Markov model shows that the urban area of Chennai district may increase from 103.52 to 140.79 km2 during 2011–2051. During the period 1981–2051, the prediction model indicates that mostly vegetation and barren land will be converted into urban land class.