Assessment and prediction of flood hazards using standardized precipitation index—A case study of eThekwini metropolitan area

Abstract

AbstractFlood is known to be the leading cause of natural disasters globally leaving disastrous and devastating damages in its wake. Flood risk and their time of occurrence is usually difficult to monitor and predict without appropriate tools for continuous monitoring. Extreme and frequent rainfall is one of the major causes of flood disasters. Assessment of flood hazards and its subsequent analysis using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is very effective in the prediction of flood risk with the strength of the SPI being the use of rainfall as the only input variable. The SPI is found to be valuable in prediction of meteorological and hydrological floods such as flash floods, groundwater floods and dam burst. The knowledge of the occurrence of these flooding events can be very beneficial in preventing extensive damages to property, infrastructure, agriculture, and loss of life. The aim of this study is to assess flood hazard in eThekwini metropolitan area by examining the trend of flood events from 1985 to 2016 by the use of the SPI and its potential to predict flood risk in the study area. The results show that SPI properly explains the development of the conditions leading up to the occurrence of floods events in the analyzed period. Thus, is indispensable in the assessment of flood risk leading to an accurate prediction. The knowledge of the pattern and trends obtained from the SPI analysis is valuable to decision‐makers for efficient flood risk management plans in the promotion of preventive actions for mitigating the impacts of floods.