Assessment and modelling the dynamics of building materials prices in the current conditions

Abstract

Construction, which is the driver of economic development in the current crisis conditions, needs to determine the correct cost and sufficiency of material resources, as well as systematic forecasting of price dynamics in order to plan the implementation of investment projects. High material capacity of construction products, along with the specificity of its pricing, leads to the necessity of not only keeping sufficient accuracy of quantitative and cost calculations regarding basic construction materials but also predicting the dynamics of cost in order to determine the volume of capital costs and accounting for the cost of work. The unstable dynamics of the cost of construction materials in 2022, caused by foreign policy pressure, requires the systematization of the factor space in order to predict trends more reliably. The factor space of the price dynamics of construction materials has undergone fundamental changes, starting with the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and further due to changes in the geopolitical situation, sanctions pressure from unfriendly countries and corresponding changes in the economic principles of globalization, the transformation of the global and domestic logistics system, as well as the actions of local country and industry scale predictors. The authors have proposed a system of factors affecting the cost of building materials, structures and products in modern conditions, on the basis of the factor analysis the prices of basic building materials (armature and concrete) have been corrected by the expert method, a scenario forecast of price dynamics has been made. The authors substantiate the necessity for calculation-expert forecasting in conditions of high uncertainty and variability of forecasting results. In general, in the short term, a moderate upward trend in the cost of basic building materials with a rather high value coefficient of variation, explained by the strong influence of non-economic factors on the price.