Abstract
The impact of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds is an important challenge facing the water resources of the Diyala River in Iraq. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to project this impact on streamflow and sediment yield until year 2050 by applying five climate models for scenario A1B involving medium emissions. The models were calibrated and validated based on daily observed streamflow and sediment recorded for the periods from 1984 to 2013 and 1984 to 1985, respectively. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination values for the calibration (validation) were 0.61 (0.53) and 0.6 (0.62) for Derbendkhan and Hemrin, respectively. In addition, the average of the future predictions for the five climate models indicated that the streamflow (sediment yield) for the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds would decrease to 49% (43.7%) and 20% (30%), respectively, until 2050, compared with the observed flow of the base period from 1984 to 2013. The spatial analysis showed that 10.4% and 68% of the streamflow comes from Iraqi parts of the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds, respectively, while 10% and 60% of the sediment comes from the Iraqi parts of the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds, respectively. Deforestation of the northern part of the Hemrin Watershed is the best method to decrease the amount of sediment entering the Hemrin Reservoir.
Highlights
IntroductionClimate patterns can change following a specific trend. During the last century, a rapid change in this pattern occurred due to an increase in the surface air temperature and a decrease in precipitation
Under natural conditions, climate patterns can change following a specific trend
The average of the future predictions for the five climate models indicated that the streamflow for the Derbendkhan and Hemrin Watersheds would decrease to 49% (43.7%) and 20% (30%), respectively, until 2050, compared with the observed flow of the base period from 1984 to 2013
Summary
Climate patterns can change following a specific trend. During the last century, a rapid change in this pattern occurred due to an increase in the surface air temperature and a decrease in precipitation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides general circulation models (GCMs) to predict monthly precipitation and surface air temperatures, which can be projected by the sediment and streamflow using the SWAT model. As no study has addressed the impact of climate change on the temporal and spatial distribution of the streamflow and sediment yield of the Diyala River, in this study, SWAT was used to compute the temporal and spatial distribution of streamflow and sediment yield and the potential future impact of climate change on the streamflow and sediment yield in the Diyala River Basin, Iraq This should help to develop a deep understanding of the Diyala River’s water resources to plan and design future projects. The SWAT model was implemented in a daily time step using the required spatial and temporal input data
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