Abstract
Economic vulnerability is an important indicator to measure regional coordination, health and stability. Despite the importance of vulnerabilities, this is the first study that presents 26 indicators selected from the dimensions of the domestic economic system, external economic system and financial system in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. A quantitative analysis is conducted to analyze the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability of the economic subsystems and the comprehensive economic system of the BRI countries and the main influencing factors of the comprehensive economic system vulnerability (CESV) are identified based on obstacle degree model. The results show that the CESV of the East Asia, South Asia and ASEAN countries are lower than that of the Middle Eastern Europe, Central Asia and West Asia countries. The CESV of the BRI countries are generally in the middle level and the average vulnerability index of highly vulnerable countries is twice as much as that of lowly vulnerable countries. In addition, in terms of the vulnerability of the three subsystems, the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the domestic economic system (DESV) and financial system (FSV) is basically consistent with the spatial distribution pattern of CESV, both of which are low in East Asia and South Asia and high in West Asia and Central Asia. While, the vulnerability of external economic system (EESV) shows a different spatial pattern, with vulnerability of West Asia, Central Asia and ASEAN higher than that of East Asia and South Asia. The main obstacle factors influencing the CESV of BRI countries include GDP growth rate, saving ratio, ratio of bank capital to assets, service industry level, industrialization level and loan rate. Therefore, the key way to maintain the stability and mitigate the vulnerability of the economic system of BRI countries is to focus on the macroeconomic development and operation, stimulate the economy and market vitality, promote the development of industries, especially the service and secondary industries, and optimize the economic structure, banking system and financial system.
Highlights
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) refers to the major strategic concept of “the Silk Road Economic Belt” and “the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road” [1]
This study constructs a vulnerability assessment indicator system for comprehensive economic systems of the BRI Countries from three dimensions of the domestic economic system, external economic system and financial systems, and the analysis of the main factors affecting the vulnerability is presented based on the obstacle degree model
In this study, based on the concept of integrated vulnerability, comprehensive economic system vulnerability (CESV) is taken as the target layer, DESV, EESV and FSV as the sub-target layer, and entropy weight method is used to assess the vulnerability of the economic system in BRI countries
Summary
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) refers to the major strategic concept of “the Silk Road Economic Belt” and “the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road” [1]. The BRI focuses on policy connectivity, infrastructure connectivity, trade connectivity, financial connectivity and people-topeople connectivity It includes a cooperative framework of “six economic corridors, six road networks, several pivot countries and several marine pivot ports”, providing new ideas and solutions for improving the reform of the global governance system. Due to the large geographical span along the BRI region, most of the countries are developing countries and emerging economies and differ in natural environment and resources [3] These countries differ in political systems, economic development level, industrialization and urbanization processes, and ethnic and cultures and religions [4, 5]. Understanding the comprehensive economic system vulnerability (CESV) of the BRI countries is crucial to promoting economic policy coordination of BRI countries, carrying out broader, higher-level and deeper regional cooperation, and jointly building an open, inclusive, balanced and universally beneficial regional economic cooperation architecture
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