Assessment and Forecasting of the Prospects for Sustainable Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex of Regional Economic Systems in Russia

Abstract

The article is devoted to rethinking the essence and prospects for achieving the sustainability of the fuel and energy complex in the regions of Russia through resolving the contradiction between the utilization of production capacity and the carbon footprint of the fuel and energy complex. The purpose of the article is to assess and forecast the prospects for sustainable development of the fuel and energy complex of regional economic systems in Russia. The article is based on the official statistics of the regional economy of Russia based on the materials of Rosstat, published in 2022 and reflecting the results of 2021. The regression analysis method determines the impact of production in the fuel and energy complex on the volume of emissions of pollutants into the atmosphere and on the share of trapped and neutralized pollutants. A probabilistic analysis of the volume of production in the fuel and energy complex in the regions of Russia was carried out. On its basis, predictive scenarios for changes in the sustainability of the development of the fuel and energy complex of regional economic systems in Russia are compiled. The article contributes to the development of the concept of sustainable development of the fuel and energy complex of regional economic systems through the formation of a scientific and methodological basis for the formation in Russia of its own model of sustainable development of the fuel and energy complex of the regions. The main conclusion of this article is that the Russian model should not involve a choice between critical states, but instead it should orient the fuel and energy complex towards finding a balance between energy security and decarbonization. As a result, it was found that due to the specifics of domestic regional economic systems, unlike the regions of other countries, for example, the EU, in the Russian regions, the interests of ensuring the energy security of the region and the interests of decarbonization are not directly opposite. In addition to this, the article revealed a new perspective for the sustainable development of the fuel and energy complex of regional economic systems in Russia. It assumes a technological focus: stabilization of the production volume in the fuel and energy complex and its modernization aimed at decarbonization through an increase in the share of trapped and neutralized pollutants.