Assessment and forecasting of regional economic systems sustainability

Abstract

The functioning of the regional system is associated with a constant change in the internal and external conditions of development, among which it is necessary to highlight the economic situation, social factors and the political situation. The dynamic nature of the environment could have a negative impact on the ability of the regional system to maintain stability and to strive for better development. Sustainable development is therefore a priority for all regional systems. Based on the position, that the sustainable development of the regional economic system depends on economic growth, and given the importance of forecasting this indicator to determine the vector of development of the territory, we consider the theoretical and model approaches to the economic growth of regional systems. In order to obtain the best result in forecasting the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators, we used the model of optimal economic growth, which is a modification of the Solow economic growth model. Both representatives of the authorities and representatives of the scientific environment solve the task of ensuring sustainable development of the economic system. The region’s ability to maintain reliability of operation of the system and to ensure economic growth in the unstable conditions of global economic conditions determines the execution of the main purposes of any of the territory: increase of competitiveness of the economic system at various levels of interaction as well as improve the quality of life of the population. This modification of the model of economic growth allows us to forecast the dynamics of GRP, to calculate the optimal level of investments, required for the sustainable development of the regional economy. Using this model, it is possible to identify the trend of the labor force and predict its dynamics.