Assessment and Forecasting of Energy Efficiency in Economic Sectors in Poland

Abstract

The material developed focuses on the analysis of energy efficiency trends in Poland, utilising ODEX indicators for the sectors of industry, transport, households and in general, from 2011 to 2021. The objective of the study is to assess the progress made in energy efficiency and to forecast future trends in these sectors. The methods employed are based on statistical modelling of time series, taking into account sector-specific energy consumption dynamics. The following techniques were employed: linear regression, cluster analysis to identify patterns of change, statistical hypothesis testing for energy efficiency and simplified autoregressive models. The results demonstrated significant improvements in energy efficiency in the industrial sector, stability of the ODEX indicator in the transport sector and gradual improvements in households and overall. The prediction indicates an upward trend in the ODEX indicator in the short term, suggesting an increase in energy demand. However, it also predicts a decline in the long term, which may indicate the effectiveness of future energy efficiency strategies and investments. Consequently, the necessity for continued efforts to increase energy efficiency and further research into the factors influencing energy efficiency in different economic sectors is emphasised.